After the “Caliphate”: the prospects of Russian-Iraqi relationships

15 March 2019

One should not associate the interest of Russia in the Middle East and strengthening of Moscow positions in the region solely with the Syrian peace process. For the last 10 years Russia has consistently been building partnerships with the most diverse forces in the Middle East. Iraq is one of the countries which welcomes Moscow and seeks to develop communication with it.

 

Moscow and Bagdad are traditionally connected by the partnership and long history of relationships based on the solid legal framework that is Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance between the Soviet Union and the Republic of Iraq (it was signed in Bagdad on the 9th of April in 1972). The USSR helped Iraq with industrialization; it also was the main arms supplier.

 

Nowadays, these links have being restored at different levels. The election results of the year 2018 in Iraq affected the prospects of the Russian-Iraqi interaction. At first glance, the Coalition “Saairun” that won 54 seats in the parliamentary elections has no contacts with Russia. Despite the fact that the relationships are relatively limited, it seems that nothing can prevent the parties from deepening and expanding their contacts.  

 

However, the key moment in this situation is the inter-Iraqi agreements on the formation of government, where “Saairun” can experience certain difficulties. The pragmatic statements about the necessity of cooperation with other inter-Iraqi political figures made by the leader of the Coalition, Muqtada al-Sadr, suggest that he follows this approach in foreign policy as well. Thus, there is a possibility of not only maintenance of the relations between Moscow and Bagdad at the same level but also of their development. 

 

Moscow and Bagdad: the pragmatic basis of the relationships

 

During the attack of the ISIL militants (ISIL – the organization that is recognized as a terroristic one and that is forbidden within the territory of the Russian Federation – editor’s note) in 2014 Moscow promptly supplied all the necessary armament and military equipment to Bagdad (including planes).

 

Those supplies were realized under the treaty for 4,2 billion dollars that was signed by the Iraqi Ministry of Defense and Russian “Rosoboronexport” in 2012.

 

Since the front line of the war with the ISIL was a few kilometers from Bagdad, the speed of supply was vital for Iraq. While the USA could ensure the armament and equipment supply to Iraq, Russia did its best in order to provide Iraq with everything necessary at the earliest possible date. A Russian ambassador in Bagdad, Maksim Maksimov, said: “We always have said that we are ready to assist this country in strengthening the defense capability of the armed forces. Within the military-technical cooperation the Russian military-industrial complex has already provided the Iraqi Government with a great number of military equipment that have proved themselves in the war against the ISIL in Iraq. It is about helicopters Mi-35M and Mi-28N, jet aircrafts SU-25, anti-tank missiles “Kornet-E” and other military products”.

 

Besides, the contracts for the supply of famous tanks T-906 signed in the year 2017 have being implemented. Despite the reports about the interest of Iraq in acquisition of the Russian anti-aircraft weapon systems S-400 in the beginning of 2018, they were not confirmed by the Iraqi ambassador in Moscow, Haidar Hadi. Russian Energy Companies, which were present in Iraq till the year 2003, got an opportunity to take part in tenders for oil and gas fields development. Nowadays, some projects are being implemented by PJSC “Gazpromneft” that develops the field “Badra” in the province of Wasit and two blocks (“Shakal” and “Garmian”) in the Kurdistan Autonomous Region. On the 6th of December in 2017 the gas-plant at the field of “Badra” in Iraq was put into industrial operation by “Gazpromneft”. Besides, as at March of the year 2018 the general investment by PJSC “Lukoil” into exploitation of the fields “West Qurna-2” and “Block-10” reached 8 billion dollars.

 

The situation with the Russian company “Rosneft” remains unclear. The company had agreements with the Kurdistan Regional Government on the development of the fields in Kirkuk. However, after Kirkuk transition to control by Bagdad Government, the Iraqi Ministry of Oil claimed about denial of all the precontracts bypassing the Central Government. Russian oil giant still remains its presence in Iraq. According to media reports there were possibilities of meetings on the pending issue of the former Iraqi Prime Minister, H. Al-Badi, and the head of “Rosneft”, I. Sechin, but the company has not confirmed this information.

 

According to the reports of the news agency “Reuters”, “Rosneft” got the infrastructure, the Kirkuk pipeline – Ceyhan with a capacity of about 300 000 barrels a day, which brings the most part of oil from the Kurdistan Autonomous Region to the world markets through the territory of Turkey. It also makes the company, probably, one of the key figures within the Agreement between Bagdad and Erbil. Iraq is important for Russia both from the perspective of trade and economic relations and in the context of conducting its regional policy. Thereby, Moscow acts rather pragmatically in the framework of its limited abilities in this country.

 

The main external figures that have influence directly in Iraq are Iran and the USA. They are inferior to Saudi Arabia that is rapidly moving towards strengthening its positions in Iraq for the last year, also due to the contacts with  Muqtada al-Sadr, a Shiah religious scholar, the leader of the Coalition “Saairun’ that won in the elections of the year 2018. China, the key economic partner of Iraq, prefers to limit its own interference in the domestic political process.

 

Moscow continues to be a convenient and profitable partner for Bagdad which can serve as additional alternative in its relations with the USA and Iran. Iraq not just strives to return its positions to the regional policy but also to draw attention of figures that are interested in a mutual profit. One of such pragmatic and influential factors is certainly Moscow.

 

Making contacts between Russian and Iraqi politicians not only allows to exchange views but also paves the way to more serious progress in the bilateral relations. It is worth noting that they have also been multilateral in a variety of spheres, the main of which are energy and the military-technical cooperation. Iran potentially supports these relations and the USA does not openly oppose this kind of cooperation between Moscow and Bagdad.

 

The opinion regarding the fact that it is Tehran which invites Moscow to Iraq, in such a way hoping to establish a counterbalance to Washington, is not an unequivocal one. The Bagdad authorities have increased the capacity for the conduction of its own policy for the recent years and, on the whole, they are opportunistic enclaves for Moscow. This is reflected in easing for Russian business activities and other measures. The only thing that can make Tehran be more preferable is the following: it can offer Russia more serious support within Iraq. However, Russia does not intend to interfere in the inter-Iraqi political process and builds pragmatic connections and business contacts that bring benefit to all the parties. 

 

Bagdad supports the strengthening of Moscow positions because one more pole of influence appears in this case. Maneuvering between all the poles, Iraq gets additional opportunities for the realization of its own interests. Moscow and Bagdad constantly coordinate actions on the matters of regional issues and the fight against terrorism. On the 25th of September in the year 2015 there was reached the Agreement on the exchange of information between Russia, Iraq, Iran and Syria. Besides, the Information centre was founded in Bagdad (“Quadripartite Information Exchange Centre”). This coordination cannot be aimed at the fight against any third parties. Quite specific tasks are being accomplished, namely regarding the conduct of hostilities against the ISIL, identification of terrorists, tracing of children that were removed from Russia by their parents who had joined the ISIL, etc.

 

This kind of work positively influenced the fight against terrorism and it is carried out in the interests of Moscow, Bagdad, Tehran, Damask and Washington. The Bagdad Information Centre was designed to ensure closer cooperation among the parties in the fight against terrorism and, to be more specific, against the ISIL. Taking into account the fact that the fight with the terroristic organization is postponed, the importance of the Centre can be revised, after which it can gain some additional development. This precedent itself, as a new and rather unexpected for many people format is a positive experience for Russia. Moscow possesses a number of mechanisms for the maintenance liaison with each of the aforementioned countries on the bilateral track. All the countries-participants can come to recognition the necessity to enhance bilateral connections or multilateral cooperation in the framework of other formats (possibly, to create new ones).

 

Iraq is already interested in participating in such formats like “Astana Process” in Syria that means not only the desire of Bagdad to be aware of the discussions and events but also its desire to enhance its role in the region, become a party that is able to be a mediator within the process of conflicts resolution. As far as such figures as the USA and Saudi Arabia is concerned, they would be able to join the dialogue and take the collaborative initiative to create a new security organization on the collective basis or to form a working group, some kind of a joint mechanism for the reduction of possible risks.

 

It is appropriate to focus the attention, firstly, on the complexity of the institutional interaction between Moscow and Bagdad. Among the key mechanisms the following ones can be noted: the aforementioned Bagdad Information Centre, Russian-Iraqi working group on the cooperation in the field of energy, a working group on the return of women and children from Iraq and Syria. The key body of the inter-governmental cooperation is the Russian-Iraqi commission on trading, economic and scientific and technological cooperation that is headed by the Deputy Prime Minister, Y. Borisov (D. Rogozin used to take this position) from the Russian side and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Muhammad Ali al-Hakim (I. al-Jaafari before the formation of the new government in Iraq), from the Iraqi side.

 

Thus, the strategy of Moscow in the Iraqi direction is connected with gradual development of relations with Bagdad, adherence to the territorial integrity of the country, multi-vectoral focuses (connections with different figures “on earth” – from the President of Iraq up to the leaders of the Hashd al-Shaabi).

 

Ruslan Mamedov, the Program Coordinator of the RIAC