The editorial staff of the Strategic Vision Group “Russia – Islamic World” website has published an article by Grigory Lukyanov, Senior Lecturer at National Research University Higher School of Economics, Researcher at the Centre for Arabic and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies RAS, Expert of the Russian International Affairs Council. The author reflects on the fact whether Libya has become a failed state as a result of several years of civil strife.
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The North African country plunged into chaos of more than five years of undeclared war again, owing to the disruption of the UN-initiated national peace conference and the start of the Libyan National Army (LNA) offensive led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar in Tripoli in early April of the year 2019. While in the autumn of the year 2018 streets of the capital city of one of the wealthiest countries in North Africa turned into the battlefield between local armed police groups, now, in the very Tripolitan agglomeration and on the outskirts of it, irreconcilable enemies have united in order to counteract the semi-regular LNA forces. The latter include elite units that are prepared and armed with the direct support and participation of Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and France, numerous tribal militias from the East, some North-West militias and mercenaries from Chad and the Darfur Region of Sudan. In their turn, the Tripolitan forces against Khalifa Haftar and the LNA that united under the aegis of Fayez al-Sarraj, the Government of National Accord, have received unprecedented military and material support from Turkey and Qatar and political support from Italy and the UN, represented by Secretary General Antonio Gutterres.
General Khalifa Haftar/Creative Commons
As a result, the conflict broke out with new vigor and moreover it turned out to be much internationalized. The number of deaths among combatants and civilians on both sides reached the unprecedented for Libya, with its relatively small population, level of more than 600 people already in April. The direct involvement of foreign sponsors has never been so significant since 2011, when the regime of Muammar Gaddafi was overthrown as a result of military intervention and interference of “the friends of Libya”. Despite the ongoing UN arms and military supplies embargo since 2011, the forces of the Government of National Accord continue to receive military cargoes from Turkey that arrive at the port of Misrata and from Egypt and the UAE for the LNA in Benghazi.
All these facts show that the participants of the internal Libyan conflict and their foreign partners are greatly disillusioned with the existing means and mechanisms for the peaceful settlement of disputes with the help of diplomacy. The peace initiatives and projects proposed by Rome and Paris for the resolution, of primarily those problems, which they are interested in, that is the problem of migration and terrorism, are respectively only indirectly related to Libya itself and aspirations of the Libyan population. Nor do Libyans appreciate the efforts of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) to play an independent role as an effective mediator, while simultaneously being completely dependent on major players both in Libya and abroad.
Libya has become a crucial transit point for Africans, seeking refuge in Europe/Creative Commons
Military instruments, despite their high cost in these circumstances, appear to be a much more attractive and effective tool to stand interests and resolve problems in modern Libya, where the war has long been the main source of political legitimacy and economic wealth for all the players.
Libya is the 28th in the Fragile States Index in 2019 and is one of the alarming countries. The average figures have significantly deteriorated over the past 5 years: the total indicator is 92,2 in 2019 compared to 95,2 in 2014. During this time the country has moved to 28th place from the 41st one. Despite all the vulnerability of any index and the rating based on it, the negative dynamics is obvious.
However, why is it complicated to call Libya a failed state and why is it incorrect to compare it with the situation in Somalia?
Libya is a rich country. Oil remains the main and the only exported commodity; therefore it is the main source of income both for the state and for the key players of the internal Libyan conflict. But it is plentiful and its price is high enough to cover all the cost of rebuilding the country in the shortest possible time. Besides, the reserve that was created earlier in the epoch of rapid economic growth and modernization in 1970-1980s, allows not only the elite in the country, but also the diaspora and ordinary households to accumulate relatively significant financial resources, material base and other benefits. By importing more than 90% of the food consumed, which Libya itself is unable to grow due to difficult geographical and climatic conditions, the country is able to pay these costs from its own oil revenues. Even during many years of war the Libyan population and Libya as a country are still rich enough and are not poor enough to replicate the sad experience of Somalia.
Tripoli before the war, 2009/Public Domain
In order for Libyan oil to enter the market, and for profits from its sale to continue to flow, there must be the single infrastructure that was built when Gadaffi was in power and that unites all the pieces of “the Libyan Puzzle”. The North is the ports, through which oil is delivered to the world market; the West is the most densely populated areas that provide the whole country with qualified labour; the South-East is the richest and the most developed fields; the South-West is the water, groundwater sources that give life both to people and to economy of the country on the whole. The Libyan oil industry is not just a sum of fields and ports around the country; it is the unified production and transportation system that operates as a whole much more efficiently.
The Libyan women are protesting against the plans to divide the country into three autonomous regions/Creative Commons
Due to its geographical location, Libya is the most convenient “gates from the Mediterranean to Africa”. Today “the Libyan Corridor” is used mostly by migrants, who move from sub-Saharan Africa to Europe in order to find a place where there is no war and opportunities for development that their own country is deprived of. But in the long run this trade route can work both ways and serve as a channel for the movement of goods and services, generating enormous profits.
Finally, despite the years of conflicts, the Libyan people have shown that the Libyan nation, although it is young and fragile, fragmented and divided, still exists. This is evidenced by several thousand non-governmental organizations, many of which clearly rather amorphous. But even tens and hundreds of well-functioning associations confirm by the very their existence the fact that civil society is far from being in its infancy. Traditional social institutions, like tribes, coexist with institutions of the modern age, many of which find support among urban dwellers that make up more than 90% of the country’s population. The relatively small but unprecedentedly young population of one of the largest countries in Africa, in the context of a long transit period for years, continues to seek national consensus. Often being hostage to the interests of foreign mediators, the Libyans are looking for their own national interest, for the development of which they have their own strength, resources and infrastructure.
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"