When countries enter into confrontation, as the United States and China do today, the international relations theory of "neorealism" can provide a key to understanding their actions. The starting point is the absence of a reliable arbiter in the world, which forces states to compete for security and influence. This struggle gives rise to the "power transition theory": when one power rapidly gains strength, while the incumbent tries to maintain its position, the world enters a period of high tension. It is through this lens — rivalry and leadership transition — that Nikolai Bobkin of the Institute of the US and Canadian Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences analyzes how the US-Chinese confrontation is reshaping the security system in the Persian Gulf.
The American attitude toward China has evolved from a restrained and multilateral approach under Barack Obama, who viewed the country as a difficult partner, through an era of harsh and often one-sided confrontation under Donald Trump, who openly declared China a "revisionist power", to a systemic "managed competition" under Biden. It was under Biden that the confrontation with China took on the form of not just a challenge, but as a strategy designed for decades to come — he defining axis of all American foreign policy. Washington believes that this strategy will shape the world, and that victory in it is measured not by immediate successes, but by constant progress and endurance.
China's policy in the Middle East is pragmatic, long-term, and based on its own interests and principles. Competition with the United States creates context and challenges, but does not dictate Beijing's actions. For example, China actively facilitated the accession of Saudi Arabia and the UAE to BRICS, transforming the organization into a platform for alternative interaction. For the Gulf states, this is an opportunity to strengthen their autonomy from Washington, while for China, it is a channel for consolidating influence outside Western structures. While the United States conditions cooperation on human rights and democracy, China builds relations on the principle of non-interference: investments and contracts under the One Belt, One Road Initiative are unencumbered by political strings.
Countries in the region skillfully exploit contradictions. The United States, with its extensive military presence, remains the guarantor of security, while China is becoming the main economic partner – the largest oil buyer and investor in infrastructure and renewable energy. Saudi Arabia is a prime example: while remaining within the US security sphere, the Kingdom is concluding multibillion-dollar deals with China in energy and high technology. Washington's pressure to choose a side is ignored, as this hybrid approach maximizes benefits for Riyadh.
Another important principle of Chinese policy is prioritizing stability over ideological solidarity. For example, China has not unconditionally supported its long-time ally Iran in its standoff with Saudi Arabia. In general, the evolution of China's role in mediating relations between these two countries has demonstrated a shift from cautious observation to active and systematic mediation.
Initially, China's position on Iran was determined by pragmatism. As the largest oil importer, China depended on supplies from both Iran and Saudi Arabia, and any instability threatened its energy security. Therefore, Beijing avoided any moves that could be perceived as supporting one side against the other. At the same time, Iran was viewed as an important strategic counterweight to the United States and a guarantor against potential American pressure on Arab oil exporters in their dealings with China.
Following the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018, harsh sanctions effectively blocked major Chinese investments in Iran. Beijing shifted focus, actively strengthening cooperation with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, causing concern in Tehran. China found a way out by acting as an active mediator and securing the restoration of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March 2023. Thus, Beijing shifted from a passive observer to a role as an architect of regional stability. China demonstrated its willingness to take responsibility for easing tensions, a role previously considered the preserve of the US.
In parallel with peacekeeping, China has offered regional countries a comprehensive alternative to cooperation. During President Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia in 2022, a strategy was presented whose key elements included: energy payments in yuan, the use of the Chinese payment system, and high-tech partnerships (5G/6G and space). This approach, combining diplomacy, de-dollarization, and technology transfer, represents a systemic challenge to US dominance in the region.
To consolidate its success and balance its growing ties with the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), Beijing has stepped up its dialogue with Tehran, inviting the Iranian president to visit in 2023. For the Islamic Republic, which is under severe sanctions, China remains an indispensable economic window to the world, a source of potential investment, and a political shield in the UN Security Council.
By acting as a responsible great power and facilitating the normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China achieved practical cooperation, reduced the risk of conflict, and changed the regional dynamic: Saudi Arabia became a potential mediator between the West and Iran, while Iran deepened its partnership with China and Russia. The settlement demonstrates the relative decline of US influence and the effectiveness of the Chinese model, based on economic interdependence, diplomacy, and alternative solutions rather than military guarantees.
The US-China rivalry does not lead to a clear division into two camps. China's strengthening position in the Persian Gulf region reflects the general trend toward multipolarity. Middle Eastern countries, while maintaining military cooperation with the US, are actively expanding their circle of partners to avoid a clear choice in favor of one superpower. China, initially interested in the region for economic reasons, has, over the past two decades, transformed it into a strategically important hub for its policy and the Belt and Road Initiative.
Beijing is pursuing a cautious approach, acting as a mediator, and seeking balance to maintain influence over all players. For the Arab monarchies, China is an attractive alternative power without a colonial past. For the United States, China's growing influence threatens to lose its traditional dominance. Washington will pressure its regional partners to limit cooperation with Beijing, but the extent and effectiveness of this pressure remains uncertain.
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