Israeli leadership may launch a full-scale military operation against the Shiite movement Hezbollah in Lebanon within the next six weeks, according to sources cited by The Jerusalem Post.
“The winter season is becoming a significant factor. Sources told the Post that if no operation takes place within the next four to six weeks, it will be impossible or much more difficult to conduct one before spring 2025,” the newspaper reports. The sources pointed out that the winter weather conditions in Lebanon's mountainous regions are far harsher than those faced by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the deserts of Gaza.
Delaying large-scale military actions would result in the 60,000 Israelis evacuated from northern border areas spending another six months away from their homes, a measure that is becoming increasingly unpopular in Israel.
The successful interception of a Hezbollah rocket attack on August 25, 2024, has also bolstered the Israeli government's confidence in pursuing military action. Thousands of rockets were destroyed on the ground before launch, leading to a reassessment of potential casualties in a ground operation against Lebanon. Initially, it was believed that Hezbollah could launch tens of thousands of rockets, leading to the deaths of 5,000 to 10,000 Israelis in the event of war.
“None of this means that a broader war with Hezbollah is inevitable. It remains a risky proposition for Israel, Hezbollah, and their respective backers—the United States and Iran,” the newspaper emphasizes.
The article further explains that drawing the US into a regional conflict could be seen as a failure of nearly a year of Washington's diplomatic efforts to prevent large-scale hostilities, which could have repercussions for the US presidential race. For Iran, such a war could result in a significant weakening of Hezbollah. “This is the riskiest period in northern Israel since October 7,” the article concludes.
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Based on materials from TASS