Alexander Shipilov, a historian and international relations specialist affiliated with the Institute of General History of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Department of Theory and History of International Relations of PFUR, voiced concerns over the potential consequences of an ECOWAS military intervention in Niger. In a discussion with TASS, he warned that such an operation might assume a protracted nature, potentially triggering a vast humanitarian crisis within Africa.
"The potential for a humanitarian catastrophe is considerably high if such an operation is initiated, primarily due to its potential protracted nature. This could usher in a fresh phase of destabilization and disorder in the region, given that ECOWAS forces cannot anticipate swift triumph if they embark on an intervention. Their opposition possesses substantial capability and readiness to engage in these circumstances. Consequently, neighboring countries in the region are likely to extend support to Niger," the expert explained.
As per the analyst, such an escalation scenario would inevitably trigger a severe regional crisis, carrying the gravest potential hazards for the civilian populace. "This would encompass the risk of famine and the wider propagation of diseases, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable social strata—the impoverished," Shipilov pointed out. He underlined that these adverse elements would culminate in escalated mortality rates within the region and a substantial surge in the influx of migrants from Africa.
Risks of conflict
Shipilov contends that the nations in the region and neighboring states will actively strive to avert such a crisis. He maintains that the looming specter of an ECOWAS intervention has been wielded by vested parties as a bargaining chip in their political negotiations with Niger. "I believe this is a tactic to heighten the stakes in the ongoing negotiations, a tactic driven by the persistent pressure being applied," the expert asserted.
He emphasized the vulnerability of the new authorities in Niger, pointing out that their position is notably precarious due to the challenges stemming from the economic blockade. "Niger lacks sea access and relies heavily on trade with neighboring states like Nigeria for critical supplies. Consequently, the pressure exerted has been acutely felt," elucidated Shipilov.
Within this framework, the analyst acknowledged that ensuring the maintenance of France and the United States' influence in Niger has been among the conditions presented to the coup orchestrators during negotiations. "However," Shipilov added, "accommodating the domestic political demands of those who have taken control in Niger is a more delicate matter, and they are presently hesitant to make such concessions. Thus, the current trajectory appears to align with an escalation scenario."
Simultaneously, Shipilov holds the view that an armed conflict "will not offer a resolution to the issue for both the ECOWAS nations and Niger," and likewise for "Western intermediaries, who have been endeavoring to secure political concessions and agreements from the recently established leadership in Niamey."
Role of France and US
"Undoubtedly, external actors play a role in this crisis," Shipilov affirmed with confidence. He reminded that there remains a partial military and economic presence of France and the United States in Niger, although their resources in the region are "rather restricted."
However, the expert holds the view that "Western forces are unlikely to have a strong inclination to significantly intervene in this situation." "France, for instance, is presently not aggressively pursuing such an approach, despite its existing presence on the ground," he emphasized. "As for the US military personnel who were stationed in the country, the matter of their evacuation is currently under consideration."
"Primarily, the crisis in Niger stems from internal challenges within the country and dynamics within the region, rather than being heavily influenced by the broader global interests of major powers," clarified Shipilov. "Consequently, it's important not to overemphasize the significance of external factors," he concluded.
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Based on materials from TASS