Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, is set to hold presidential and parliamentary elections. Among the three candidates vying for the presidency, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, a staunch supporter of President Joko Widodo's policies and a proponent of a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian conflict, is considered the front-runner. His rivals are former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan.
According to the latest poll by Lembaga Survei Indonesia, Prabowo leads with 51.9% of respondents, potentially securing a first-round victory. Ganjar Pranowo has 20.3% support, and Anies Baswedan trails with 23.3%. Widodo has served ten years and cannot seek a third term.
Candidates' approaches
Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, 72, is considered the front-runner in the presidential race. He is paired with Widodo's son Gibran Rakabuming Raka for the vice presidency. Prabowo is known for his support of the current president's policies, including restrictions on the export of natural resources such as nickel and their domestic processing. He also proposes moving the capital from Jakarta to Nusantara, a city under construction on the island of Kalimantan.
On foreign policy, Prabowo aims to uphold the philosophy of non-alignment, which he described as preserving "the legacy of the founding fathers." He expressed a desire for Indonesia to maintain good relations with all countries and avoid taking sides in conflicts. In a recent interview with Al Jazeera, he stated, "In any conflict or rivalry, we are the ones who can be accepted by all sides."
In June 2023, Prabowo suggested a plan for a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, which included a ceasefire, the creation of a 15-kilometer demilitarized zone, and the deployment of UN peacekeepers on the line of contact. He also suggested that the UN organize and hold referendums "on disputed territories," without specifying which territories he referred to.
Ganjar Pranowo, 55, is also seen as a supporter of continuing Widodo's course on major issues. He is paired with Coordinating Minister for Politics, Justice, and Security Mahfud MD for the vice presidency. As part of his campaign, Pranowo has emphasized that Indonesia should become a strong country with its own culture and sustainable system, drawing parallels with Russia, China, and India.
Anies Baswedan, 54, is offering voters an alternative to the two pro-Widodo candidates. He is paired with National Awakening Party leader Muhaimin Iskandar for the vice presidency. One of the key points of his election program is the rejection of the plan to relocate the capital, arguing that there are more pressing problems, including infrastructure construction and the repair of educational institutions. If elected, Anies questions Indonesia's economic policy of exporting natural resources and emphasizes reducing income inequality. He promises greater foreign policy engagement and restoring Indonesia's global standing.
Indonesia's future
The outcome of Indonesia's presidential election, slated to be held in the most populous Muslim nation globally, is poised to shape the developmental trajectory of Southeast Asia's largest economy and one of the world's most expansive countries, according to local observers. Of particular interest are policies concerning the regulation of nickel exports, which are witnessing increasing global demand due to their pivotal role in electric car battery production, along with limitations on bauxite exports and other metals.
Indonesia has set its sights on becoming one of the world's top five economies by its 100th anniversary of independence in 2045, necessitating a GDP growth rate of approximately 6-7% annually. Presidential candidates have pledged to achieve this growth rate, ranging from 5.5% (Anies) to 8% (Prabowo).
Parliamentary elections
Simultaneously, on February 14, Indonesians will cast their votes in elections for the People's Consultative Congress, which comprises the Council of Regional Representatives (upper house) and the Council of People's Representatives (lower house), as well as for local legislatures. The Council of Regional Representatives will see 152 seats contested.
The Council of People's Representatives boasts a total of 580 seats, with 9,917 candidates from 18 parties vying for them across 84 constituencies. Political parties or coalitions securing 20% of the votes in the 2024 legislature will be eligible to nominate their presidential and vice-presidential candidates in subsequent elections.
According to the latest poll conducted by the National Research Institute from February 4-9, the Movement for a Greater Indonesia is projected to secure 20.9%, followed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle with 16.8%, Golkar with 10.2%, the Justice and Prosperity Party with 8.9%, and other parties with varying percentages.
Candidates will also vie for 17,510 local legislative seats.
Nail-biting election
Indonesia's elections span 17,000 islands and three time zones, making it the largest direct election globally, with over 204 million eligible voters. Polling stations open at 07:00 local time, giving voters six hours to cast their ballots. The first stations in the eastern part of the country open at 01:00 Moscow time, with the last ones closing by 09:00 Moscow time. Over 820,000 polling stations will be operational, and a turnout of over 80% is expected, given that Election Day falls on a weekend.
Voters mark their choices by piercing the ballot with a nail and then dipping their finger in indelible ink to prevent multiple voting.
Such massive elections demand dedication from poll workers, with over 890 poll workers reportedly losing their lives during the previous election in 2019.
Official election results in Indonesia take several weeks to certify, but quick counts, akin to exit polls, are expected hours after voting ends. These quick counts use samples from individual polling stations and provide early insights into the election outcome. In 2019, quick count results were available about two hours after voting concluded, reflecting the later official results.
To win outright in the first round, a presidential candidate must secure over 50% of the votes nationwide and a minimum of 20% in more than half of the country's provinces. In the absence of a clear winner, a second round will be held on June 26. The newly elected president and vice president will assume office in October.
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Based on materials from TASS