The price of Brent crude could surge to $200 per barrel if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is obstructed for an extended period, according to experts interviewed by the newspaper Vedomosti.
This follows a report from Bloomberg suggesting that US authorities are modeling a scenario where oil prices spike to the $200 mark, though this information has not been officially confirmed.
Kirill Bakhtin, the head of Russian equity analysis at BCS World of Investments, believes Brent could only hit such heights if the Strait of Hormuz were blocked for several months. He noted that the current market supply is being bolstered by strategic reserve releases and a softening of sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil.
Natalia Milchakova, a lead analyst at Freedom Finance Global, shares this view. She pointed out that such a price hike would require the Strait of Hormuz to remain closed through July, alongside the simultaneous blockage of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
Milchakova also identified a second catalyst for such a sharp rally: the potential destruction of oil production infrastructure in other Middle Eastern nations, such as Saudi Arabia, due to regional conflict.
Taking a more cautious stance, Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko observed that the market still appears confident in a swift resolution to the Middle East crisis. He noted the current lack of a strong upward trend in prices, despite the conflict already impacting approximately 17% of global oil demand. However, Dudchenko warned that maintaining the status quo or an official, total closure of the Strait of Hormuz could act as the ultimate trigger for a price explosion.
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"
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Based on materials from TASS