Russia plans to expand its gas supplies to Central Asia to 10-15 billion cubic meters annually in the near future and may revisit the idea of a pipeline to India, according to experts interviewed by TASS. Gas exports to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline could exceed its design capacity of 38 billion cubic meters in 2025.
“Work is underway with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to increase the capacity of the Central Asia–Center gas pipeline in reverse mode, with potential volumes reaching 10-12 billion cubic meters per year,” said Alexey Grivach, deputy head of the National Energy Security Fund and Valdai Club expert. Sergey Kaufman, an analyst at Finam Group, estimates the figure at 12-15 billion cubic meters annually.
Experts also predict that Russia will boost pipeline gas supplies to China. According to Maria Belova, research director at Implementa, Gazprom has already reached its maximum annual delivery volumes via Power of Siberia ahead of schedule and signed additional agreements with Chinese partners. This could push exports through this route beyond the planned 38 billion cubic meters in 2025. By 2027, gas supplies via the Far Eastern route are expected to begin, increasing total deliveries to China to 48 billion cubic meters.
Russia is currently considering two new gas pipeline routes to China: Power of Siberia 2, which would run through Mongolia with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters, and a pipeline through Kazakhstan with a capacity of 45 billion cubic meters (35 billion for China and 10 billion for gasification of northeastern Kazakhstan). Experts view Power of Siberia 2 as more advanced and preferable, as it would support the gasification of major Siberian cities and supply China's metropolitan region with a robust consumer base.
However, the choice between these projects should prioritize economic feasibility, including construction costs and the pricing formula agreed upon in the supply contract, Belova emphasized. The lack of consensus on Power of Siberia 2 increases the likelihood of the Kazakh route being chosen, Kaufman noted.
Prospects for a Pipeline to India
The idea of a pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan has been under discussion since 1996. Russia later signed a memorandum with Iran and Pakistan, supporting the construction of the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline, which would span 1,200 kilometers. Gazprom was expected to participate in the project, but in 2021, the Russian company announced that it had no plans to build the pipeline due to its high cost.
While earlier studies conducted about a decade ago found all proposed routes to be unprofitable, the changing geopolitical landscape might provide new justifications for pursuing this project, Belova observed.
“Work on India is ongoing, albeit at a preliminary stage, primarily involving discussions on transit through Iran,” Grivach noted. However, Finam believes that with the growth of the LNG market, the idea of a pipeline to India has lost much of its relevance.
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Based on TASS materials