Eight OPEC+ member countries will begin gradually increasing oil production in April, following a prolonged period of voluntary output cuts. Since early 2024, these nations have collectively reduced production by 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to stabilize the market.
The voluntary cuts were implemented by Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Algeria. While the initial plan was to start ramping up production in October 2024, the decision was postponed multiple times. Ultimately, the increase is now set to begin in April. According to TASS calculations, OPEC+ countries will raise output by 88,000 bpd in April, taking into account commitments to compensate for previous overproduction by some members.
The phased return of the 2.2 million bpd to the market will take place from April 2025 to September 2026. By then, Russia is expected to restore production to 9.949 million bpd, while Saudi Arabia aims for 9.978 million bpd—both currently producing at a reduced level of 8.978 million bpd. However, OPEC+ has left room for flexibility, indicating that the production increase could be paused or even reversed depending on market conditions.
Not all OPEC+ members have strictly adhered to the agreed production cuts since early 2024. Initially, Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia exceeded their quotas and were required to compensate for their overproduction by June 2026.
In late March, OPEC released an updated compensation schedule, which now includes seven of the eight countries that had pledged voluntary cuts—Algeria being the only nation fully complying with its commitments. The remaining countries must make up for a total of 4.203 million bpd of excess production between March 2025 and June 2026. In April, their combined compensation volume will be 249,000 bpd.
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Based on TASS materials