Hassan Khannenje, Director of the HORN International Institute for Strategic Studies, provides insight in an interview with TASS into the ongoing diplomatic tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia, dismissing the likelihood of an armed conflict.
The diplomatic rift intensified when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland President Musa Bihi Abdi signed a memorandum of understanding to secure access to seaports, leading to concerns and challenges from Somali authorities who view the memorandum as a violation of their sovereignty.
"War is unlikely to erupt because Somalia lacks the military capacity to confront Ethiopia. Moreover, Addis Ababa, with internal conflicts in Tigray and Amhara, and tensions with Eritrea, is not inclined towards military actions. Notably, both countries are cooperating in the fight against the terrorist group al-Shabaab, creating an indirect dependency on each other for that matter," Khannenje said.
He highlights that while war may be unlikely, the diplomatic conflict jeopardizes the reconciliation initiatives between Somalia and Somaliland, playing into the favor of Somaliland's pursuit of international recognition since 1991.
"Now there is widespread discussion about the potential recognition of Somaliland's independence by Ethiopia, although it is not explicitly mentioned in the memorandum. It does discuss the possibility, and this serves as positive public relations for Somaliland," Khannenje explained.
Meanwhile, the expert underscored that Ethiopia's diser to access the sea is economically motivated and well-founded. "Ethiopia has consistently pursued access to the sea, akin to how Crimea is crucial for Russia. Presently, exports are channeled through the port of Djibouti, with 90% of shipments passing through it. However, this is highly cost-ineffective, significantly inflating logistics expenses. Hence, Addis Ababa has initiated the process of securing access to alternative ports in neighboring countries," the analyst elaborated.
According to his assessment, the parties will reach a peaceful resolution, as escalation is not in the interest of either side.
Previously, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed identified sea access as a strategic objective for the landlocked country, emphasizing that the lack of it could lead to conflict. The Ethiopian leader urged neighboring nations to engage in discussions for equitable access to ports in return for a stake in the Renaissance Dam. However, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea did not support the proposal.
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Based on materials from TASS