According to Hironori Fujita, an expert in the Russian economy and associate professor at Kobe City University of Foreign Studies, Russia has every reason to not extend the grain deal and will not suffer significant damage if it chooses to withdraw.
Fujita expressed this view during a conversation with a TASS correspondent on Monday. He highlighted that Moscow's demands within the deal have not been met, including the reconnection of Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT system, spare parts supplies for agricultural machinery and exports of Russian ammonia. Given these circumstances, it is not logical for Moscow to continue participating in the deal, and there are no guarantees that its demands would be fulfilled even if the deal is extended.
Fujita believes that Russia is unlikely to experience any adverse consequences from withdrawing from the deal. He stated that Russia's grain exports are proceeding normally, and if Moscow decides to withdraw, it has options to address any discontent from the Global South due to potential food price increases. This could involve implementing initiatives to provide free grain and fertilizers to the poorest countries.
The expert also noted that if the deal is not renewed, there may be an increase in grain flows from Ukraine to global markets through overland transportation corridors. This could create further problems within the European Union (EU), particularly in Eastern European countries, where such supplies already impact local product prices. The resulting discord within the EU regarding further assistance to Ukraine would align with Russia's strategic interests vis-à-vis the EU.
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"
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Based on materials from TASS