Iran and Israel appear to be trying to avoid a large-scale military conflict, despite the recent assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the chairman of Hamas's politburo, in Tehran. This perspective was shared by Sati Sakanasi, a leading expert on Iranian policy and the director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the Japan Institute for Energy Research, in a conversation with TASS.
"Both Iran and Israel are likely not interested in escalating into a full-blown war. Various diplomatic efforts are currently underway to prevent a major conflict. However, the assassination of a high-ranking Hamas leader on Iranian soil presents a significant challenge for Tehran, which may feel compelled to retaliate to preserve its credibility. Despite this, Iran's response might not be military. Instead, it could involve non-military actions such as imposing certain conditions in the Gaza Strip or implementing sanctions against Israel," Sakanasi said.
The expert also noted that while Iran has limited means for launching a serious military strike on Israel, it might refrain from doing so if it can achieve a situation it perceives as a victory. Sakanasi added that Iran typically avoids direct military confrontations with the United States, preferring to support anti-American forces in the region indirectly. However, this strategy could unravel if the conflict with Israel escalates to the point where US military intervention becomes likely.
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"
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Based on materials from TASS