Negotiations between the warring parties in Libya are not yet possible, and an escalation of the armed conflict is extremely high. This opinion in an interview with TASS was expressed by a senior researcher of the Centre for Arab and Islamic studies, Institute of Oriental studies Boris Dolgov.
"In my opinion, peace talks between the two centers of power are possible only if there is military parity, when neither side can achieve military success. When this situation develops, then negotiations are possible, finding some kind of compromise, creating a real government of national accord. If there is a preponderance of one side, then there will be no sense. In the meantime, there is a situation where the success of the GNA is obvious, so we do not have to talk about negotiations yet," he said.
According to the analyst, the decisive factor in the further development of the situation in Libya is the influence of external players. The expert noted the interest in the participation in the conflict of the Turkish GNA supporting force, which is very active in the conflict and does not comply with the agreements reached on the ceasefire and the arms embargo on the country.
He added that only thanks to military support from Turkey, the GNA has won a number of military successes and occupied a number of areas along the coast of Libya, and in the area of the border with Tunisia. "And these military actions, which although now somewhat weakened, but, of course, they will not end there, and here again, the main role will be played by external players," the source said. - Escalation is possible at any time. Since this struggle for power cannot stop at this stage, when there is a certain balance, although there have been successes on the part of the GNA. And we must keep in mind that Turkey is counting on the military success of the GNA. And the success of the GNA will mean the success of Turkish expansion, Turkish interests in Libya."
Dolgov explained that for Turkey, success in Libya was a strategic goal, including economic interests. He recalled an earlier Memorandum with the GNA on possible development in the oil-bearing areas of the Libyan shelf. Turkey also supports armed groups that are ideologically close to the current Turkish leadership, the expert added. "The Turkish authorities position themselves as the new leader of the Islamic world. This is also one of the goals in Libya, so success in Libya will confirm these ambitions of the Turkish leadership. Therefore, we can expect the aggravation and promotion of these interests of Turkey, " he explained.
Chances of a rematch
Speaking about the chances of Marshal Khalifa Haftar to "win back" the situation, the expert noted that they were there, since he also enlisted external support. In particular, Egypt plays an important role here. It is also interested in stabilizing Libya and preventing the Islamist forces, the Muslim brotherhood, which are Egypt's enemy, from coming to power. There are also KSA, Kuwait, supporting Haftar's Libyan National Army (LNA), he recalled.
"So there is a possibility. However, Turkey is acting much more decisively, more rigidly, and consistently. Step by step, Turkey is implementing its goal of expansion in Libya, " the expert added.
Dolgov mentioned a recent incident off the coast of Libya. This month, a Turkish frigate refused to comply with an order to inspect cargo from a French frigate taking part in the NATO operation Sea Guardian. Evading inspection, the Turkish ship took aim at the French ship using a radar-guided missile system, which the French military Department regarded as "exceptionally hostile and aggressive actions".
The situation in Libya
In Libya, for a long time, there have been two parallel bodies of executive power: the GNA sitting in Tripoli, headed by Faiz Sarraj, and the interim Cabinet acting in the East of the country jointly with the Parliament and supported by the LNA under the command of field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. For more than a year, the opposing camps have been fighting for the country's main city, after Haftar launched an offensive on the capital on April 4, 2019, with the goal, as he claimed, of liberating it from terrorists.
In response, the Tripoli Cabinet mobilized all the armed groups under its control, officially requesting assistance from Turkey on the basis of a Memorandum of military cooperation signed with it in November last year. With the active support of Ankara, the GNA managed to regain control of a number of territories captured earlier by the LNA forces.
The LNA has repeatedly accused Turkey of supplying weapons to the GNA forces in circumvention of the international embargo, as well as sending hundreds of mercenaries from Syria to help them. The capital's government, in turn, says that the LNA has the active support of Egypt, the UAE and a number of other countries, claiming that they also send weapons, military specialists and mercenaries to Libya.
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"
Photo: Zuma \ TASS