The grain deal, which has been in place for almost a year, is set to expire on Monday, and the fate of the agreement is now a pressing concern.
Originating from agreements made on July 22, 2022, in Istanbul, the deal was initially intended for a duration of 120 days but has since been extended multiple times. Its provisions encompassed the regulation of grain exports from Ukrainian ports and aimed to facilitate access to global markets for Russian agricultural products and fertilizers. However, Russia claims that Ukraine has failed to fulfill its obligations under the agreement, leaving key demands unmet. These demands include reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to the SWIFT system, supplying spare parts for agricultural machinery, resolving logistical and insurance challenges, and unblocking bank assets.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that during the entire duration of the grain deal, Ukraine has failed to fulfill any of its provisions, while benefiting from the export of its own food products. Furthermore, Lavrov highlighted that the majority of grain exports from Ukraine have been directed toward Western countries rather than the intended destination of the poorest nations. As a result, the commercial nature of the Black Sea initiative has overshadowed its original purpose.
The situation has been further complicated by Ukraine's actions, including undermining the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, effectively halting discussions for its resumption. The Russian Foreign Ministry has expressed frustration at the silence from the UN leadership regarding this issue and the lack of relaxations in Western sanctions against Russia. In light of these circumstances, there are no justifications for extending the deal beyond July 17. Russia has been making significant efforts to ensure that ships involved in the grain deal complete their mission and leave the Black Sea before the agreement expires.
Kremlin statements
On July 13, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that Moscow could suspend its participation in the grain deal until all obligations are fulfilled. He emphasized that Russia is ready to extend the agreement once the promises made to Moscow are met. However, the fulfillment of these promises must precede any extension, as Moscow is no longer willing to accept an approach of extending the deal and hoping for subsequent fulfillment.
Putin also stated on July 13 that Russia would carefully consider its position on the extension of the grain deal. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov specified that Moscow would further elaborate on its steps before the agreement's expiration.
During a telephone conversation on July 15 with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Putin reiterated the persistence of obstacles to Russian exports, which were supposed to be removed under the grain deal. He expressed disappointment that the primary goal of supplying grain to countries in need, particularly in Africa, has not been achieved.
Turkey's initiatives
Turkey has consistently claimed that its views on the fulfillment of the grain deal align with those of Moscow. Moreover, Turkish authorities have put forth ideas for initiating the supply of Russian agricultural products.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed concern that nations in need, especially in Africa, are not receiving an adequate amount of food intended for them. In November 2022, Erdogan expressed his desire to receive grain from Russia, process it into flour, and send it to impoverished African countries. However, this initiative has yet to make significant progress.
Turkey is actively working to keep the grain deal alive, while Ukraine is pushing for its extension, regardless of Russia's position. During talks in Istanbul on July 8, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky called for the prolongation of the initiative, disregarding Russia's stance.
JCC data in Istanbul
Ahead of the expiration of the grain deal, the Istanbul-based Joint Coordination Center (JCC), consisting of representatives from Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, and the UN, confirmed Russia's claims regarding the inadequate distribution of food to countries in need under the Black Sea Initiative.
According to the JCC, low-income countries have received only 10 percent of the corn and 40 percent of the wheat supplied under the grain deal, with the majority of the products going to developed nations. The center also highlighted that the proportions of grain and corn supplied from Ukraine to the poorest countries have remained unchanged compared to the period of 2017-2021, while the percentage of products supplied to upper-middle-income countries has increased.
Furthermore, the JCC acknowledged that exports of Russian ammonia fertilizers, agreed upon as part of the grain deal a year ago, have failed to materialize. On July 11, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres sent a letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin proposing measures to implement the Russian part of the grain deal. The details of the letter have not been disclosed.
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Based on materials from TASS