Vitaly Naumkin, academic director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, has expressed skepticism over Israel’s commitment to maintaining its ceasefire agreement with Hamas once the ongoing hostage exchange is completed.
“I find it hard to believe that Israel will abandon its harsh and unjust actions, which have resulted in civilian casualties in Gaza. Right now, it seems the hostage issue is being resolved through mutual concessions, which is a positive development. This progress is largely thanks to Arab states and mediators such as Egypt and Qatar,” Naumkin said in an interview with TASS ahead of the 14th Valdai Middle East Conference.
“But I wouldn’t guarantee that Israel will stick to the agreements it has been pressured into accepting,” he added.
Naumkin argued that Israeli authorities were never inclined to accept the terms of the deal in the first place. “I believe external pressure played a major role in forcing them to the negotiating table,” he said. “But whether they will actually follow through remains uncertain. My skepticism is reinforced by the rhetoric coming from Israeli officials today.”
As an example, he pointed to Israeli calls for the resettlement of Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan—an idea that, he noted, is strongly opposed by those countries.
“This idea isn’t new. The Israelis were pushing it back in the late 1940s, suggesting that all Palestinians be relocated to Iraq, where there was plenty of land,” Naumkin recalled. “History has shown where forced deportations and population transfers lead.”
According to Naumkin, such mass relocations typically result in lawlessness and renewed hostilities, which can have devastating consequences for civilians and regional stability. “Yet, within Israel’s political elite, support for deportation and resettlement remains strong,” he concluded.
Ceasefire Agreement in Gaza
Fighting between Hamas and Israeli forces erupted on October 7, 2023, and lasted until January 19, 2025, when a ceasefire was implemented under an agreement brokered by Egypt, Qatar, and the US On the same day, Palestinian groups released the first group of hostages.
Under the terms of the deal, the first phase will last 42 days, during which Hamas is expected to release at least 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinians held in Israeli jails.
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Based on TASS materials