The 28th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28) concluded in Dubai on Wednesday, albeit a day later than planned, as negotiations stretched into the early morning hours, leading to a delay in adopting the outcome document. The central focus of the discussions among representatives from the Convention's 198 parties revolved around shaping the future trajectory of fossil fuel usage.
A contentious topic during the conference was the global divestment from coal, oil, and gas. In line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, there was widespread agreement among delegations that more stringent emission reduction measures were needed. A key demand was the phasing out of fossil fuels and establishing emission peaks by 2025. This stance garnered support from both developed nations and many developing countries, with an emphasis on the disproportionate impact of climate change on nations that historically contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions.
Simultaneously, countries whose economic development hinges on fossil fuel utilization advocated for a less radical approach—phasing out "unabated" fossil fuels. This alternative allowed for the continued use of fossil fuels under the condition that emissions abatement technologies were widely implemented. The United Arab Emirates, a major oil producer and host of the conference, championed this compromise approach, asserting that carbon neutrality could be achieved without a complete divestment from fossil fuels. The UAE actively promoted carbon capture and storage technologies in pursuit of this goal.
However, formulations suggesting a phased divestment failed to find common ground with Saudi Arabia and several other OPEC and OPEC+ nations. A TASS source within the Saudi delegation reported that representatives from the Kingdom threatened to block the document during closed-door talks if it included provisions for the phase-out of fossil fuels. With the parties holding polarized positions, the negotiations hit an impasse just days before the conference's scheduled conclusion.
On December 10, Sultan bin Ahmed Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and COP28 chairman, proposed a meeting in the Majlis format—an assembly historically used in the Islamic world for collaborative decision-making. During this gathering, heads of delegations from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other OPEC nations vehemently opposed the inclusion of a clause advocating the phase-out of fossil fuels in the final COP28 document. The Saudi representative criticized opponents for attempting to "politically influence the energy sector."
In contrast to its alliance allies, the UAE maintained a more restrained position throughout the conference. The host authorities viewed the event as a crucial image-building initiative rather than a platform for advancing commercial interests, including those in the energy sector. The primary objective of the COP28 presidency was to secure a historic agreement garnering support from all parties to the Convention.
Outcome document
COP28 celebrated a significant milestone with the unveiling of the inaugural Global Stocktake (GST) outcome document, a comprehensive analysis tracking progress toward meeting the Paris Agreement goals. The document serves as a pivotal guide for the global community, offering a blueprint to ensure adherence to climate objectives, notably restraining the rise in average annual temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Governments are now tasked with integrating this global strategy into national policies and reporting back to the UN on their progress by 2025.
Throughout the conference, multiple drafts of the outcome document were created, originally intended to determine the fate of fossil fuels. Initial drafts advocated for the phased withdrawal of fossil fuels, but subsequent revisions led to the inclusion of a call for a "reduction in both the consumption and production of fossil fuels." The final version, adopted by the Conference of the Parties, incorporated clauses endorsing "a transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a fair, orderly, and equitable manner." It also urged an acceleration of actions in the critical decade, aiming for carbon neutrality by 2050 and abandoning inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that fail to address energy poverty or facilitate an equitable transition.
The document outlines eight essential climate actions deemed necessary by the Conference of the Parties to curb emissions and limit the global average annual temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Initiatives include tripling global renewable energy capacity, doubling the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030, and hastening efforts to reduce coal-fired power generation without emission reduction measures.
Additional climate action options highlighted involve expediting global endeavors toward zero-emission energy systems using carbon-free and low-carbon fuels, intensifying reductions in emissions from road transport through infrastructure development and rapid deployment of zero- or low-emission vehicles, and significantly reducing emissions of greenhouse gases other than CO2 through the use of carbon-free and low-carbon fuels.
The Chair of COP28 called the outcome document as a "historic achievement," an opinion echoed by numerous countries and members of the expert community. The emphasis on transitioning away from a fossil fuel-centric economic model marked a groundbreaking shift in focus at UN climate negotiations.
Assessment of the document
The COP28 outcome document has been called by Simon Steel, the Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, as the "beginning of the end" for fossil fuels. While acknowledging that the fossil fuel era has not been entirely left behind in Dubai, Steel expressed confidence that this outcome signals a pivotal shift. Speaking at the closing plenary session, he emphasized the responsibility of governments and companies to swiftly translate these promises into tangible economic results.
Ruslan Edelgeriev, the head of the Russian delegation and Presidential Special Representative on Climate Issues, characterized the document as a compromise. He highlighted that the provision on transitioning from fossil fuels strikes a balance by considering the interests of major players in the hydrocarbon market, essential for global energy security. Many developed countries, initially advocating for a phased exit from fossil fuels, view the document positively as a foundational step for broader global climate action.
Even Saudi Arabia, which initially opposed any mention of fossil fuels in the document, expressed satisfaction with the decision. The head of the Saudi delegation stated that the climate action options outlined in the document align with the temperature rise limits set by the Paris Agreement and accommodate the specificities of each country within the context of sustainable development.
However, the compromise language, lacking clarity on the exact nature of the "transition" away from fossil fuels, has faced criticism from many developing countries grappling with the impacts of global warming. Concerns have been raised that the document introduces a loophole benefiting hydrocarbon producers, exporters, and most developed countries with energy-intensive industries. Anne Rasmussen, the representative of Samoa speaking on behalf of the Alliance of Small Island States, emphasized that the document fails to provide the necessary course correction, particularly for nations facing existential threats from global warming.
Other results
COP28 achieved several significant outcomes beyond the core discussions on fossil fuels and climate action. One noteworthy accomplishment was the establishment of the Climate Change Loss and Damage Fund for Developing States. Approved on the opening day of the conference, this agreement marks a crucial step in addressing the impacts of climate change on vulnerable nations. The fund, initiated following the COP27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, provides a special financial mechanism to assist developing countries in managing damage from events such as droughts, floods, and rising sea levels. Since its inception, the fund has garnered nearly $800 million in contributions.
In the realm of financial commitments, the Green Climate Fund witnessed an impressive influx of new contributions during the second replenishment cycle, totaling a record $12.8 billion. Additionally, eight donor governments pledged over $174 million to the Least Developed Countries Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund, while the Adaptation Fund for Developing Countries raised almost $188 million. The cumulative financial support pledged during COP28, amounting to over $83 billion, reflects a collaborative effort involving governments, major businesses, and philanthropic organizations to implement the conference agenda.
Looking ahead, COP28 initiated discussions on establishing a "new collective quantitative climate finance target" in 2024, taking into consideration the needs and priorities of developing countries. This forthcoming financing target, expected to be a minimum of $100 billion annually, will serve as the foundation for crafting and implementing national climate plans, with governments required to submit these plans by 2025.
The conference participants also endorsed 11 declarations spanning various domains. Over 150 countries expressed their intent to establish distinct targets for greenhouse gas emissions in the food sector, while more than 130 committed to tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030. A declaration signed by over 120 countries called for the modernization of national healthcare systems to account for climate risks, and over 20 countries pledged to triple the world's nuclear power capacity by 2050.
Next conferences
Following the rotational principle, the next UN climate conference, COP29, is planned to take place in an Eastern European country. Azerbaijan was the primary contender to host COP29, with its bid contingent on garnering support from members of the Eastern European Group participating in COP28. During a meeting of the regional bloc within the framework of the conference, the countries rallied behind Azerbaijan's application. This support materialized following Armenia's decision to withdraw its candidacy for COP29 in favor of Azerbaijan.
On December 11, the Conference of the Parties, the governing body of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, officially ratified the candidacies of Azerbaijan and Brazil for hosting COP29 and COP30, respectively. These upcoming conferences are poised to play pivotal roles in shaping future climate action. COP29 is earmarked for governments to establish a new climate finance target, while COP30 will be dedicated to formulating new national climate change plans that comprehensively cover all sectors of the economy.
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"
Photo: Tim Reckmann/Creative Commons 2.0
Based on materials from TASS