The role of Afghanistan in the anti-terrorism activities of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in the near future will be ambiguous and may lead to both positive and negative effects, Lanzhou University's Institute of Political and International Relations Director Zhu Yongbiao told TASS.
"The revival of the 'SCO-Afghanistan' contact group and the inclusion of the Taliban (banned in Russia) into RATS currently faces several challenges," he said, commenting on the prospects of Afghanistan joining the organization and its potential participation in RATS.
According to the Chinese expert, Russia perceives the Afghan issue as "a tool in the new game being played by the United States and Europe." "Russia's approach to the Taliban can be considered a step forward based on previous actions. Russia has already de facto recognized the Afghan Taliban regime while attempting to encourage them to establish closer ties with the SCO," Zhu clarified.
Zhu believes that Russia is making efforts to involve Afghanistan in multilateral cooperation within the SCO, including anti-terrorism cooperation within RATS. "However, this faces several problems. One of them is that SCO member states may not have a unified opinion on this matter," - he explained. - "The most obvious example is Tajikistan, whose position may be very cautious, and the views of other member states may differ from the Russian position."
"Russia takes the most active position on this issue among SCO member states. Together with Iran and India, it may perceive it at the same level, while the positions of some other countries do not quite align with the Russian position and lie in a different plane," Zhu Yongbiao added.
Prospects of Taliban's Participation in SCO Activities
The expert noted that the key problem is not whether Afghanistan, controlled by the Taliban, can join RATS and participate in its work. "The question is what this will mean, what consequences it will have," he stated.
According to Zhu Yongbiao, Afghanistan's accession to the SCO at the current stage "threatens to have side effects." "This may affect Central and South Asian countries. Promoting cooperation in the fight against terrorism is necessary, but it may also have negative consequences," he said.
The director noted that some countries have included the Taliban movement on the list of terrorist organizations, or it is considered an "oppositional, extremist force." "After coming to power, it may participate in active counter-terrorism cooperation and corresponding mechanisms of the SCO," - the expert commented. - "However, this may have a powerful demonstration effect on other extremist and terrorist forces and become a stimulus for their activation."
The expert pointed out that the international community and Afghanistan's neighbors will perceive such prospects with great concern. "Furthermore, the Taliban still has a lot of rhetoric and self-correction regarding the fulfillment of its obligations to fight terrorism," - the director stated. - "In fact, there is a significant gap between how the movement actually fulfills its anti-terrorist obligations and how the international community sees the Taliban's obligations."
Possibilities and Prospects
According to Zhu Yongbiao, the possibility of Afghanistan's accession to the SCO and joining RATS currently exists but is relative. He believes that strengthening contacts and working out appropriate issues with the Taliban should be carried out in a small working group format.
"Regarding the promotion of cooperation beyond these limits, the conditions for further steps may not be appropriate at the moment," the expert clarified.
"I think the external community should not place too high hopes on the temporary government of Afghanistan's participation in the SCO's anti-terrorism activities. The actual results may not be as encouraging as expected," he emphasized.
At the same time, Zhu Yongbiao believes that the SCO should cooperate with the Taliban. "We cannot deny their significance and truly urgent nature [of their participation in regional anti-terrorist activities]. However, my expectations for the positive results that this cooperation can bring are not too high," he concluded.
On July 4, during the summit in Astana, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Moscow supports the idea of resuming the SCO-Afghanistan contact group, as it would contribute to the normalization of the situation in the country. The head of state also reported that Moscow is in contact with the Taliban movement but that the timing of possible recognition and full-fledged membership of the Afghan side in the organization depends on the development of the situation.
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"
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Based on materials from TASS