The international meeting on Syria in the Astana format has good prospects, but no breakthrough results are expected - there are still many unresolved issues, Boris Dolgov, Senior Fellow at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, expressed this opinion in a conversation with TASS.
According to the expert, holding the next round of inter-Syrian negotiations in Sochi is a very important event, especially after a long break. "However, I will note that there are prospects for these negotiations, but there are a sufficient number of difficulties. In particular, there are differences of opinion among the participating countries," he said.
According to Dolgov, Turkey has its own vision of the solution to the Syrian crisis, its own assessment of the Islamist groups operating in Syria. "Recent events, especially the shelling of Russian facilities near Khmeimim from the area of Idlib, which is controlled by Turkish forces, also create new difficulties for finding a way to solve the crisis. Here [there is] also the Kurdish factor - here Turkey's concerns about the ongoing clashes between the Kurdish forces and the pro-Turkish groups there are justified," he said.
Therefore, the expert stressed, the talks in the Astana format are important and timely at this stage, but there are still many issues to be solved. Much will depend on the position of the negotiating countries, especially the Turkish leadership because Turkey has its own interests and ambitions not only in the Syrian conflict but also in the region as a whole, the source said.
Dolgov reminded that the sides have different visions of one of the key topics of the meeting: separating the Syrian opposition from the terrorists. This is primarily on the part of Turkey. "Different approach to the groups, which are considered terrorist and radical by the leaders of Syria and Russia, while Turkey considers them moderate. If this problem is solved, it will largely solve these issues in the complex, give the opportunity to promote joint actions of these three countries to prevent terrorist actions and to promote finding ways to solve the Syrian conflict," he pointed out.
Therefore, the analyst continued, much depends on Turkey's position, as well as on Russia's position as a country that has been quite successful in solving these problems in Syria and managed to suppress the "Islamic State" (ISIS, banned in Russia). And Russia can present some issues quite tough and especially in terms of the Turkish presence in Syria. At this stage, however, one should not expect any cardinal decisions from this meeting yet, Dolgov emphasized.
Disagreements in the Constitutional Committee
Dolgov adds that a new factor has emerged regarding the work of the Constitutional Committee in Geneva: disunity and new demands from within the opposition forces. He explained that Kurdish representatives are demanding more rights, and this makes it difficult for the committee to move forward. "At this stage, everything depends on the consolidation of these opposition representatives, but if we talk in general about the work of the Constitutional Committee, it is a complicated issue, because the very idea of creating a new constitution is not perceived by everyone because there is the current constitution," he continued.
The expert explained that the Syrian opposition insists on the new constitution, some participants of the Constitutional Committee are ready to make changes, additions. "Even if the new constitution with amendments will be worked out, it is also a very important and long-term issue. The work of the committee itself is complicated - there is a clash of interests," Dolgov concluded.
The 15th international meeting on Syria in the Astana format is taking place in Sochi on February 16-17. The previous meeting in this format was held in December 2019 in Nur-Sultan. Bilateral and trilateral consultations are taking place on February 16, and a plenary session is scheduled for February 17.
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"
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Based on materials from TASS