If Donald Trump is re-elected president of the United States, there could be a staged operation against Iran to create a pretext for war with the Islamic Republic, according to military expert Alexey Leonkov, editor of Arsenal of the Fatherland, in a conversation with TASS.
Leonkov suggested that a Trump presidency would face a deeply divided American society. To address this, the US might seek to unify the nation by focusing on an external adversary. He highlighted that the current split between Democrats and Republicans has weakened the country to the point of “borderline civil war.” In such circumstances, the US might pursue a unifying, yet aggressive action abroad to maintain its status as a global hegemon. Leonkov argued that provoking an international incident could provide Trump with the opportunity to rally domestic support and allow the U.S. to assert its dominance in global affairs.
He pointed out that with growing influence from BRICS countries and the Global South, the US is increasingly being pushed out of key regions like Africa and Central Asia. If US efforts falter in maintaining its alliance with Israel, Leonkov suggested, the country could also lose its foothold in the Middle East. He added that a withdrawal from Iraq has long been discussed, which could further reduce US influence in the region.
The expert speculated that a potential provocation could involve an attack on a US Navy aircraft carrier, akin to the 1941 Pearl Harbor attack that drew the US into World War II. He singled out the USS Abraham Lincoln, a Nimitz-class carrier currently in the Middle East, as a potential target. Leonkov emphasized the symbolic nature of such an attack, linking it to the assassination of President Abraham Lincoln in 1865, suggesting that whether the ship is sunk or merely damaged, the incident could be used to escalate tensions with Iran.
Earlier, Politico reported that US intelligence had indicated that Iran was “actively planning” an assassination attempt against Donald Trump, noting that the threat had increased in recent months.
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"
Photo: Christian Ohde/Imago/TASS
Based on TASS materials