The United States and the European Union have stepped up efforts to "undock" Central Asia from Russia since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, but they will not be able to implement such a scenario in the medium term. This is stated on Thursday in a new report of the Valdai International Discussion Club, "Central Asia and the Ukrainian Crisis."
The authors of the material, based on a series of situational analyses conducted during 2022, tried to establish how the events in Ukraine affected the geopolitical situation in the region. According to their estimates, despite all the upheavals, the Central Asian countries have generally remained stable, managed to consolidate their political elites and avoid pronounced negative effects on their economies. However, significant changes have occurred in the balance of external forces whose interests overlap in Central Asia.
For example, experts point to the recently intensified actions of Washington and Brussels, the purpose of which "is to destabilize the region". Here, they are trying to escalate the confrontation with the largest opponents - Russia and China, as evidenced by the extremely harsh rhetoric of the collective West. "In fact, the US State Department directly declares its intentions to "undock Central Asian countries from Russia", while the Agency for International Development (USAID) aims to reduce Central Asian countries' dependence on Russian markets and export routes," the report explains.
In February, analysts said, the West began exerting increased pressure on the region's states in an attempt to finally tilt their position in their favor. The US and the EU are using the Ukrainian conflict to put an end to the balanced multi-vector policy of the Central Asian authorities and force them to turn away from Moscow. "Western partners are now demanding that Central Asians 'choose sides,'" the report's authors state.
Nevertheless, Russia remains the most important factor of stability and a reliable ally for regional players. "Despite the West's efforts, in the medium term the realization of the task of "undocking the region" from cooperation with Russia does not seem likely. Russia is the largest investment and trade partner of the countries of Central Asia, which is the guarantor of security in the region," emphasizes the article.
Priority of Russian foreign policy
However, according to the authors of the report, in 2022, Russia's attention to the events in Central Asia, a close and important region, has somewhat weakened. "This is perhaps one of the important omissions, fraught with consequences," the experts say.
The experts point out that Central Asia deserves to be in the center of the Russian foreign policy priorities in view of the radical Taliban (banned in Russia) coming to power in Afghanistan, tensions on the border of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and the events in Kazakhstan in early 2022. "Especially since Central Asia's geopolitical location between the leading Eurasian powers makes it an object of intense interest not only for Russia and China, but also for their opponents on the international stage," the report stresses.
Russia, as the analysts point out, should not ignore the internal complexities of the development of Central Asian countries and the pressure on them from the West, which may, in the medium term, force the governments of the region to answer quite difficult questions. "The most important of these include maintaining friendly relations with Russia and increasing trade and economic ties with it, as well as the need to maintain relations with the West so that the US and Britain are not tempted to help foment political instability," the report says.
"We should not turn a blind eye to the many signs of potential destabilization directed against both the Central Asian states themselves and their relations with Russia," the authors point out. - "There are troubling internal processes related to the difficulties that the countries of the region are experiencing against the backdrop of the military-political crisis in Ukraine."
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"
Photo: Valdai Club
Based on materials from TASS