Turkey's discovery of large natural gas reserves in the Black sea - about 350 billion cubic meters-does not yet pose a threat to Russia in the gas market in this region, as the field is still poorly studied, according to experts interviewed by TASS.
"This is hardly a bluff, but it is also impossible to call it a full - fledged information about a major discovery of technically and commercially recoverable reserves," said Alexey Grivach, Deputy head of the National energy security fund. According to him, previously many countries had high hopes for exploration in the Black sea, but so far they have not been justified.
"In terms of production of real volumes, the situation in the region remains deplorable. Romania, where 8 years ago the largest discovery of gas reserves on the Black sea shelf was made to date, could not put them into operation, despite the participation of world-class companies such as Exxon and OMV in the project, " Grivach recalls.
The very possibility of commercial gas production in Turkey is in question, since at current gas prices, the new field will not be able to compete with LNG, and even more so with traditional Russian, Iranian and Azerbaijani gas, according to Ekaterina Kolbikova, a consultant at Vygon Consulting. According to her, against the background of the development of renewable energy and nuclear energy in the country, gas consumption will continue to decline, while the contractual obligations until 2025 will be higher than the needs of Turkey.
"The stated timing of the start of industrial production is also unlikely. On the shelf of the Black sea and Sakhalin, the time from the opening of the field to the beginning of commercial production is 18-24 years, and work on the last major discoveries in the region, for example, the Romanian Neptune field, has been going on for about 10 years, despite the government's interest in reducing import dependence," she adds.
As Wood Mackenzie mining analyst Thomas Purdy explains, developing reserves in the Black sea is complex logistically and requires billions of dollars. This is the reason why the Romanian project Neptun Deep, which is located just 100 km from the Tuna-1 well, was stopped.
What if?
Despite the fact that the prospects for production at the field are still vague, Turkey is likely to use information about reserves in negotiations with Russia, Iran and Azerbaijan, and this will help strengthen its position.
"In the coming decade, this discovery could have far-reaching implications for gas imports to Turkey and in upcoming negotiations with Gazprom, Azerbaijan and Iran, "said Wood Mackenzie's European gas Director, Murray Douglas.
Sergey Kapitonov, a gas analyst at the Energy Center of the SKOLKOVO Moscow school of management also believes that the presence of such an asset will significantly strengthen Turkey's position in negotiations with any of the gas suppliers, but the country will not be able to completely abandon imports.
If Turkey can confirm the announced reserves of the field, and they are profitable, the country will be able to produce 5-10 billion cubic meters of gas per year, that is, 12-25% on the scale of the current Turkish market, Grivach from the National energy security fund estimated.
"The appearance of an additional source of supply will increase competition between other suppliers, which Turkey is very interested in, and will use the "opening" in negotiations with gas exporters to Turkey. But then again, it could also give impetus to the growth of demand for gas. Turkey has no experience in deep-sea mining. But if the reserves are confirmed, they can and probably will try to attract a technology partner from among the Western oil and gas majors, " the expert believes.
"I would not panic ahead of time, as we still see only political statements. We need to wait for confirmation of inventory, data on the cost of extraction. For example, China has huge gas reserves, but they are located at such a depth that it is impossible to extract them. Therefore, here we see that Turkey has received a reason for statements, but Russia has no reason to panic, " concluded Alexey Kalachev, an analyst at Finam.
GSV "Russia - Islamic World"
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Based on materials from TASS