National Assembly elections in Pakistan, along with legislative contests in Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces, are taking place on Thursday. With approximately 5,000 candidates vying for National Assembly seats and around 12,000 for regional legislative positions, the elections feature about 160 parties and associations.
The original timeline for these elections, which should have been held within 90 days of the National Assembly's dissolution in early November 2023, was disrupted by the approval of a new census in August 2023. This led to an increase in the population count from 213.2 million to 241.5 million, necessitating changes to the constituencies and the total number of parliamentary seats. Consequently, the Election Commission postponed the elections to adjust to the new demographic data.
The provisional voting period was initially set for late January/early February 2024, but the Supreme Court ultimately approved the general election date of February 8, 2024. This decision was crucial for both the Election Commission and the interim government led by Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar.
On terrorist threats
Despite the escalating terrorist threat, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, the elections are proceeding. Over the past six months, there has been a significant rise in terrorist attacks, shifting from military and security targets to local politicians. Recent incidents include attacks on Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) candidate Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah and independent candidate Rehan Zeb Khan, as well as an explosion at a Pakistan Movement for Justice (PTI) rally in Balochistan.
The Senate's attempts to postpone the elections were rejected by the Election Commission, which acknowledged the risk of terrorist attacks on over half of the polling stations. In response, additional Armed Forces units were deployed to ensure election security.
Acting Information Minister Murtaza Solangi stated in early January 2024 that the current security situation in Pakistan is "much better than it was in 2008 and 2013," emphasizing the government's commitment to conducting the elections as scheduled.
On favoured candidates
The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the PPP are emerging as the most promising political entities for the upcoming elections in Pakistan. The PTI, which is highly popular, cannot yet declare candidates due to pending interparty elections mandated by the Election Commission. Consequently, PTI activists are running as independents in the current ballot.
Nawaz Sharif, the founder and leader of the PML-N, appears to have the strongest prospects for forming a new government. Sharif served as the prime minister of Pakistan three times—from 1990 to 1993, 1997 to 1999, and 2013 to 2017—before being sentenced to house arrest and later exiled. His return to Pakistan on October 21, 2023, coincided with his acquittal in all cases, paving the way for his political re-engagement.
Sharif's political acumen and experience, coupled with the backing of Pakistan's military leadership, particularly Army Chief Gen. Asim Munir, have facilitated his return to the political arena. Moreover, he has been actively meeting with leaders of major regional parties to build a political alliance, which includes the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (Sindh), Balochistan Awami Party (Balochistan), and Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (Punjab). These parties are known for their loyalty to the army command in Pakistani society.
However, despite Sharif's potential return to power, the BJP's independent candidates may attract substantial voter support, especially with high turnout. Opinion polls suggest that former Prime Minister Imran Khan's party could secure approximately 70-80% of the total popular vote.
Experts agree that none of the major political alliances—PML-N, PPP, or PTI —can independently secure enough votes to govern alone. They will likely need to form coalitions with less popular parties or negotiate among themselves, as was the case after the no-confidence vote against Khan and the subsequent appointment of Shahbaz Sharif as the new federal cabinet chief. This pattern suggests that a coalition government will once again lead Pakistan post-elections.
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Photo: Bilalhassan88/Creative Commons 3.0
Based on materials from TASS