What are the most successful strategies in the new international realities? How do we survive the security crisis we are facing today? What are the implications of NATO expansion for world powers and tensions in post-Soviet countries? This and much more was discussed by experts within the framework of an expert panel session hosted by the Institute of Central Asia Studies.
The main purpose of the discussion was to identify Russia’s and Central Asia’s policy strategies within the new context. In particular, the issue of political and economic implications of the Kazakhstan and Ukrainian crises for the regions was put on the agenda. The key experts included Tatiana Kotyukova, researcher at the Institute of General History of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Roman Penkovtsev, associate professor at the Department of International Relations, World Politics and Diplomacy at Kazan Federal University; Zamir Karazhanov, Kazakhstani political scientist; Ravshan Nazarov, associate professor at the Tashkent branch of Plekhanov Russian Economic University.
It is worth noting that the developments in the post-Soviet countries are of great concern not only to Russia, but also to the world as a whole. The security system established in the XX century in the context of the Cold War is now in crisis. Whereas previously the Middle East was the main region of tension, crisis lines are now moving towards the European border. In this situation, NATO’s enlargement has led to new tensions that cannot be ignored without a review and reassessment of existing security norms.
According to Tatiana Kotyukova, the post-Soviet countries have reached a definite historical fork in the years of independence and building their own statehood, at which there are two ways to continue moving forward.
‘One of the options in which developments can unfold is the continuation of escalating historical phobias associated with the history before 1917, with the Soviet time, with the conflicts in the CIS and in the world in general, in which Russia participated from the position of peacemaking forces. Those people who were born after 1985 are faced with the imposition of a certain kind of ‘historical memory’, often anti-Soviet one,’ the expert explained.
According to Kotyukova, the second option is to reach a new level of relations between Russia and Central Asian states, which will make it possible to overcome a number of imposed phobias that have taken place over centuries of history.
‘The chances of this option are 50/50. At the same time, there is a circumstance that applies to all people both in Russia and the Central Asian republics: there is a certain number of thinking intellectuals who have made their choice in terms of political and moral reference points not in favor of their homeland. This phenomenon needs to be studied,’ the speaker concluded.
Addressing the discussion participants online, Ravshan Nazarov drew special attention of the audience to what foreign policy strategies were officially in place in the Central Asian countries.
‘For instance, if we have a look at Tajikistan, the foreign policy concept of this Central Asian republic, which has been existing since 2015, states that the neighboring countries of the region occupy a priority position in the system of interstate relations for the country. Thus, Tajikistan is a supporter of further expanding the positive, centuries-old and creative experience of friendly coexistence between the peoples of Central Asia,’ the expert explained.
Nazarov is convinced that Kazakhstan, on the other hand, has the newest concept among all Central Asian republics – for 2020-2030, adopted in March 2020. Among the priorities there is further development of alliance relations with the Russian Federation, a comprehensive strategic partnership with the People’s Republic of China, an expanded strategic partnership with the United States of America, strategic relationship with Central Asian states, as well as an expanded partnership and cooperation with the European Union and EU member states.
‘Apart from it, significant areas of foreign policy include the expansion of cooperation with political and security organizations in Europe and Eurasia – CSTO, OSCE, NATO and other institutions,’ Ravshan Nazarov explained.
The international experts did not neglect the situation around Afghanistan. Roman Penkovtsev spoke about regional security of Central Asia in the context of the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. He is convinced that 20 years of the US mission ended in complete failure. ‘The most obvious problems that will be relevant to the region for a long time include problems with border security, the danger of the growth of religious extremism, the problem of refugees and internally displaced people, the problem of drug trafficking, arms trade and other kinds of smuggling,’ the expert added.
In summarizing the meeting, the specialists noted that Central Asian countries have passed a significant historical milestone – the 30th anniversary of their own independence. This is reflected in the significant differences in the republics’ domestic and foreign policies.
Overall, it is worth noting that Central Asian countries are establishing new channels of cooperation with their neighbors, with a particular focus on the economic processes taking place within EAEU. And CSTO acts as an organizational mechanism to address the internal crises and problems of Central Asian countries. The active diplomatic activities of the independent Central Asian states contribute to new foreign policy objectives that consolidate political systems and provide opportunities for economic modernization.
Ilmira Gafiyatullina
Photo: Creative Commons