Representatives of Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations are discussing extending the grain deal and implementing Russia's part of the agreement on the supply of grain and fertilizers at a meeting in Istanbul, while the agenda also includes security issues for the operation of the grain corridor. Negotiations are held in different formats - trilateral, quadrilateral, bilateral contacts are also planned, and May 11 will be the key day of the negotiations.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin participates in the meeting. In addition, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Martin Griffiths participates in the talks.
The Russian side repeatedly noted that a further decision on extending the deal depends on fulfilling the Russian part of the agreement. Lack of progress on this issue threatens the fate of the initiative.
No progress
Despite the efforts of UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the Russian part of the package deal is still not being implemented.
Moscow continues to insist that progress on the key issues of Russian agricultural and fertilizer exports is necessary for the extension of the grain initiative. Russia's main demands still remain reconnecting Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT, resuming supplies of agricultural equipment, spare parts and service, lifting restrictions on insurance and reinsurance, lifting the ban on access to ports, resuming operation of the ammonia pipeline Tolyatti - Odessa, as well as unblocking foreign assets and accounts of Russian companies related to the production and transportation of food and fertilizers.
Earlier, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that Moscow believes that the future prospects of the grain deal do not inspire optimism yet. At the same time, he stressed that Russia is ready to continue contacts with the UN and other parties because it expects the agreements to be fulfilled in full.
Ankara's active diplomacy
Turkish National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar noted that Ankara hopes for the grain deal prolongation in the interests of all the parties. The country's authorities also repeatedly stated that they make all necessary efforts to extend the deal. In particular, Ankara is trying to influence the positions of other partners, noting that the extension of the agreement will depend on consideration of Russia's requirements. At the same time, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu expressed hope for the extension of the grain deal for at least two months.
Cavusoglu also directly pointed out that the difficulties with the implementation of the Russian part of the grain deal continue because of the United States and Britain, whose banks do not cooperate in the grain deal to pay for Russian agricultural products. The minister noted that he was discussing this topic with his colleagues from the United States and Great Britain.
Such an active position, as explained to TASS by a well-informed source in Ankara, is associated with the fact that "the termination of the grain corridor would have an extremely negative impact on Turkey" and would reduce the trust in Ankara as a reliable partner and intermediary. Therefore, according to him, there is "no option for Turkey to fail the deal."
UN efforts
The UN secretary-general stated that the organization was making efforts to better respond to Russia's problems with the grain deal, but indirect obstacles to exports from Russia persisted.
On April 24, Guterres delivered a letter to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov for President Vladimir Putin with proposals for extending the grain deal. The secretary-general sent similar letters to the leaders of Turkey and Ukraine. The Russian side said it would study Guterres' letter.
The Russian foreign minister repeatedly noted that Russia sees and appreciates the UN secretary-general's efforts to lift restrictions on Russian food exports and does not think he was cheating when he put forward the Black Sea grain initiative. However, the results, Lavrov said, are virtually non-existent.
Possible concessions
Experts believe it is possible that the European Union and the United States may agree to lift some restrictions imposed on Russia in order to ensure that the grain deal continues. In particular, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said May 10 that Washington and London believe the grain deal should be extended immediately to ensure food supplies to countries in need. However, Lavrov pointed out that under the deal, the poorest countries receive less than three percent of Ukraine's grain shipments, although they "are priority recipients of humanitarian aid, including food aid."
The sides are also likely to discuss the possibility of including the Turkish bank Ziraat in grain deals with Russia. Turkey has previously reported on the potential readiness of the Turkish state bank to conduct transactions for Russian grain and fertilizers.
About the deal
On July 22, 2022, a package of documents was signed in Istanbul to supply food and fertilizers to the international market. Initially the agreements were concluded for 120 days, in November last year they were extended for the same period. On March 18 of this year, Russia announced a 60-day extension of the deal, warning that this would be enough time to assess the implementation of the memorandum signed with the UN.
GSV "Russia - Islamic world"
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Based on materials from TASS